Domestic PV market has huge potential
Post Date: 12 Sep 2012 Viewed: 346
There used to be an expression about China's photovoltaic industry: "three foreign ends", meaning: main raw material polycrystalline silicon is imported from foreign countries, main production equipments are imported from foreign countries, and the majority of photovoltaic products are sold to foreign markets. In the last couple of years, two of these "three ends" have undergone major changes: Xuzhou Zhongneng Silicon Company's polycrystalline production has reached internationally leading level, capable of meeting part of the demands in China; and China is now capable of producing most of the production equipments, with technology capability continuing to improve rapidly. As for the third end that photovoltaic products are mainly exported, nothing much has changed. The latest statistics is: currently about 95 percent of China's photovoltaic products are exported.
Besides, two numbers are circulating in the photovoltaic industry: currently China's production capacity of photovoltaic battery and modules accounts for 80 percent of the world's production capacity, but China's photovoltaic power generation accounts for only 0.8 percent of the global market. Such a sharp contrast is a reflection of China's great backwardness in photovoltaic power generation, as well as an indication of the vast potential of China's photovoltaic market. This is why many people, with the photovoltaic industry in such harsh conditions currently, are calling that active efforts be made to explore the photovoltaic power generation market in China.
Development of the photovoltaic power generation market at current stage needs to be subsidized by the government, and it's the same in every country. The development of photovoltaic power generation in such countries as Germany, Italy, and Japan has been very fast in recent years, and the reason is that the governments of these countries have increased subsidy. China's photovoltaic power generation industry is currently at the starting stage. The Chinese government has promulgated multiple policies and promoted the construction of demonstration projects such as the Golden Sun Demonstration Project, franchised bidding of photovoltaic power stations, and the solar energy photovoltaic building and application integration project.
These demonstration projects have all been subsidized. Where does the money for the subsidy come from? It is learned through inquiry that some of the money comes from the government's specialized renewable energy development fund. Where does the money of the fund come from then? It comes mainly from the price of electricity used by society. Of the current electricity price, a tiny part is being used for the government's renewable energy development fund. It is fair to say that all walks of society, industrial and commercial enterprises, and every ordinary citizen have all made contribution to the development of renewable energies such as photovoltaic power generation and wind power.
In order to vigorously develop the photovoltaic power generation market in China under current circumstances, simultaneous increase of total subsidy amount is required. The good news is that, with the significant fall in the price of photovoltaic products, the same amount of subsidy now can be used to build more or bigger power generation projects.
It's very obvious that the government is actively promoting the development of the domestic photovoltaic power generation market and this has been clearly reflected in the several adjustments of the targets of photovoltaic power generator installation during the 12th Five-year Plan. According to reports, the target was initially 5GW, and was adjusted to 10 GW later, and then again adjusted to 15 GW in May, and the number was eventually finalized at 21 GW not long ago. It is told that the number would not be changed again. However, some experts still believe that 21 GW is rather conservative, and optimistic estimation would put the number at 30 GW. There are indeed uncertainties in the future.
There is an estimation that seems more plausible at present: photovoltaic power generator installation can reach 5GW in this year, which was the initial installation capacity target during the 12th Five-year Plan. Here, it can be seen that the development of China's photovoltaic power generation market is accelerating.
Nonetheless, in our survey, we discover that some major manufacturers show more interest and confidence in exploring the international market. They are still not very confident about how to cope with the rules in developing the domestic photovoltaic power generation market.