Dun & Bradstreet published last week a forecast estimating that the economic damage to Israel from H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) could amount to NIS 35 billion.



According to Dun & Bradstreet, a general contagion will lead to a 4-5% drop in GDP, amounting to NIS 28-35 billion, in Israel, and a 3-5% drop in global GDP.



Novel H1N1 (referred to as “swine flu”) is a new influenza virus causing illness in people. This new virus was first detected in people in the United States in April 2009. This virus is spreading from person-to-person worldwide, probably in much the same way that regular seasonal influenza viruses spread. On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) signaled that a pandemic of novel H1N1 flu was underway.



The main sectors likely to be affected in Israel are: entertainment, restaurants, bars, caf?s, and tourism.



There will also be gainers. The biggest will probably be drug companies that produce inoculations against the virus.Take away food and film hire companies also stand to benefit.



The calculation of the direct economic damage includes:



The direct cost derived from the expected lost working days,

Damage (direct & indirect) to certain specific industries, and

The medical cost of treating the sick



Each year during the flu season, about 9% of the workforce take leave from work, and about two million working days are lost, costing about NIS 1.2 billion (including medical costs).



The Ministry of Health estimates that a quarter of the population will contract swine flu this winter.



Dun & Bradstreet estimates that the number of working days lost will be 2.5 times the usual number, since the age group most at risk is those aged 15-49, so that the effect of the flu will be worse than in a normal season. Parents with sick children will stay at home, risking catching the flu themselves, while workers who present initial symptoms will take sick leave as a precaution.



This means that the cost of lost working days and medical treatment is liable to reach NIS 35 billion.



In addition, some workplaces will have to isolate healthy workers, for fear of them becoming ill, which would result in a shut down of the office or factory.



It is also possible that if infected, whole geographic areas will be sealed off.