In a presentation made during BHP Billiton analysts’ briefing on its Coal business and tours of its Queensland Coal operations, it said “Industrialization and urbanization of China has underpinned strong global steel demand growth. Chinese crude steel production is expected to peak at ~1.1 billion tonnes by ~2025. Steel production growth in China is expected to moderate as steel intensity per unit of GDP declines. Pig iron growth rates will decline further as scrap use increases.”

BHPB sees that growth excluding China is expected to be driven by India and, to a lesser extent, Latin America, the CIS and South East Asia although the Indian steel outlook is less certain as steel production growth has been slower than expected

BHPB said “Long-term seaborne metallurgical coal demand will transition towards other emerging markets. China is expected to remain a significant importer, however much of China’s future demand growth will be met by domestic coals. Global metallurgical coal demand growth rates will moderate as demand transitions towards other emerging markets. India is expected to be the most significant source of new seaborne demand. Rest of world demand growth will be driven by Turkey and South East Asia. Limited growth is expected in developed markets such as Europe and Japan.”