Chinese nonferrous metals consultancy Beijing Antaike has raised its 2013 alumina output forecast for the country to 46.5 million mt, up less than 1% from the mid-year forecast of 46.3 million mt, an analyst said Tuesday.

"The higher forecast is mainly due to the startup of two new refineries in Shanxi -- the Xinfa Shanxi plant and the Chalco Xingxian plant," the Antaike analyst said.

The Shanxi Xinfa refinery, a subsidiary of Shandong Chiping Xinfa Group, saw first output in July, a company source said at the time. The plant started at an initial 800,000 mt/year capacity and is slated to have a final design capacity of 5 million mt/year.

Chalco's new 1 million mt/year refinery in Xingxian is expected to start partial production in October.

"The startups are late in the year and will take time to ramp up. Actual output won't be very high this year, so we've only revised forecast slightly," the analyst said. "There are also no reports of major refinery cuts this year." Antaike figures showed alumina output of 42.14 million mt last year, down marginally from the expected 42.53 million mt for 2012.

By the end of the year, Antaike expects China's alumina production capacity to reach 62 million mt/year, up from about 58 million mt/year at the end of 2012.

The forecast for China's 2013 domestic aluminum production is 24.5 million mt, unchanged from a mid-year forecast, another Beijing Antaike analyst said Tuesday. The figure is 22.5% higher than the 20 million mt produced in 2012, according to National Bureau of Statistics data.

China's aluminum smelting capacity is expected to reach 30-31 million mt/year by end-2013, which would be a sharp increase from around 25 million mt/year in 2012.

The rise is mainly attributed to various new smelters and expansion projects in the western regions of China, particularly Xinjiang. An estimated 3-4 million of new capacity is available in the west, with most expected to be ready this year or next, Antaike said.