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China's production of copper, iron ore and zinc has rebounded


Post Date: 16 Dec 2013    Viewed: 376

The landing probably won't have the shock effect on the West that the Soviet Union beating the US into space in 1957 with the Sputnik 1 satellite did. After all, back then the US believed it was far superior to the Russians in most respects whereas the West now seems resigned to China eventually becoming the one that matters most.


On the economic front, which concerns us here, the space success coincided with news that, last month, China's refined copper output rose 28 per cent year on year. Iron ore output was up 11 per cent and zinc production by 12 per cent. All three recorded new monthly record highs.


CBA's Lachlan Shaw says the metal data indicates a 20 per cent year-on-year growth in investment, a recovery in electricity output and strong industrial growth.


Deutsche Bank, in its 2014 commodity themes report, advises how to position for the China rebound. The analysts forecast 8.6 per cent growth next year, well ahead of the consensus. They expect Chinese shares to rally by as much as 15 per cent over the coming six months, noting industrial metals and bulk commodities have typically performed well in a bullish China equity environment. Deutsche expects strong copper demand, in particular.


That will be welcome news to copper producers, who face a global surplus next year. On the local front, Tiger Resources (TGS) has just boosted its Congo reserves to 934,000 contained tonnes while Hot Chili (HCH) reports more high-grade hits, including 43m at 1.1 per cent copper from its Productora deposit. Struggling Xanadu Mines (XAM) is working to keeps its Mongolian copper dreams alive by taking on a local partner, no doubt hoping to avoid dramas that hit other foreign companies in that country.


Potash hunters


FERTILISER minerals prices are really on the nose at present. Falling world food prices don't augur well for farmers' capacity to spend on fertiliser over the coming year. The latest indicator of the squeeze being put on potash and phosphate producers is that Israel Chemicals, one of the global biggies, is reported to be planning large-scale layoffs.


But this does not seem to have discouraged the potash and phosphate hunters too much.


Kazakhstan Potash Corp (KPC) is certainly pushing on; on Thursday we received the prospectus for a $54 million raising at $1.80 a share, although it is clearly working with a net: the minimum is set at just $9m.


Previously known as Fortis Mining, and in trading suspension since November 2011, KPC is run by a Hong Kong businesswoman who styles herself as "Madam Freada Kwan Cheung", billed as having great contacts within China, although biographical details available are wafer-thin.


The company owns projects in Kazakhstan. Its most advanced, Zhilyanskoye, has a resource of one billion tonnes which, while it sounds a lot, is not huge by deep underground potash project standards: BHP Billiton (BHP) has 5.3 billion tonnes at its Jansen deposit in Saskatchewan and there would certainly be questions about whether that would be economic at today's prices.


KPC will clearly target the China market, into which Russia's potash miner Uralkali has been making large inroads. Beijing is now trying to screw down the price they pay to the large North American producers.


There is certainly an alternative, and cheaper one at that, to mining these very deep potash deposits and that is by evaporating solutions from brine lakes. Just by chance, Australia is well placed in that regard. Last month, Geoscience Australia issued a report indicating Australia has considerable potential in this regard and not only for potash: it names lithium and borates as viable targets.


One of the biggest deposits, Lake Chandler in Western Australia, is owned by Activex (AIV) but is stalled by the low global potash price. (While it's big, it's still well short of the largest potash in brine resource: the Dead Sea.)


Meanwhile, Reward Minerals (RWD) reports it has received "highly encouraging" potash brine analyses in the Telfer-Lake Disappointment area of WA. (Your correspondent hesitated to mention RWD as, at least at one stage, its share register contained a core of true believers who produced robust email invective at anything other than glowing references to their little "multi-bagger".)


Reward also has a 15 per cent stake in the Karinga Lakes project near the Lasseter Highway in the Northern Territory where Rum Jungle Resources (RUM) is targeting a chain of dry salt lakes.


There is also an at present unlisted player, Australian Salt Lake Potash, picking up various projects in Australia's hinterland. It is of vital economic importance that some of these projects be found viable.


As RWD's website points out, Australia spends $200m a year importing potash. Moreover, the brine lakes produce the higher-valued form, known as sulphate of potash. Activex notes there is a large local market in the WA wheatbelt.


While Canada is a world powerhouse in potash, it now imports phosphate with its one remaining mine closing. Fertoz (FTZ), which listed in September with plans to fill the gap from developing production in British Columbia, has added another project just across the border in Idaho. Idaho has three operating phosphate processing plants, two within 35km of the new FTZ ground.


China's gold lust


ANZ commodity strategist Victor Thianpiriya wrote on Friday that Chinese gold enthusiasm remained price sensitive, with last week's spot low of $US1212 an ounce producing buying at levels unseen since the mid-October dip. Yes, the Chinese just keep on buying, cornering more and more of the world's gold.


And they are also going to the source. A Chinese investment group is looking at putting up $NZ10.9m ($10.1m) towards the revival of the Talisman mine across the ditch in return for putting their foot on 65 per cent of the physical gold and silver produced from the resource identified in the pre-feasibility study.


New Talisman Gold Mines (NTL) said the big plus was that existing shareholders were not being diluted and retained full rights after the initial commitment to the Chinese was fulfilled. The mine produced one million ounces of gold and three million ounces of silver before it closed in 1919.


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