AS of yesterday, Indonesia has imposed export bans on unprocessed minerals. On Friday, nickel soared 3.14 per cent, Indonesia being an important supplier.

The ban is meant to be a blanket one, but no one really knows what exemptions will follow. BNP Paribas sent out a note on Friday saying "even now there is great uncertainty about details and implementation".

Reuters reported yesterday that Jakarta might allow US mining giants Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold and Newmont Mining to continue to ship billions of dollars worth of copper overseas. Expect more confusion.

Indonesia's ban is aimed at forcing more processing in the country.

However, things could change -- especially if the foreign exchange earnings plunge. Moreover, no new nickel or bauxite smelters have been built to handle what is being mined.

Roger Bade at London investment bank Whitman Howard points out the Indonesians did the same with tin, only to ease off after a while. He says Indonesian nickel and copper companies have political clout (one large nickel miner is threatening to lay off 1400 workers). Bade doesn't think Jakarta will stick to its guns, meaning prices will slide again.

One of the big questions is bauxite. China depends heavily on Indonesian bauxite supplies but clearly will be looking for new sources.

No doubt they're biting their nails at Australian Bauxite (ABZ). By mid-year this company has to decide on pressing the green button to develop its deposits. Nine months ago, ABZ forged a deal with Xinfa Group, which has aluminium smelters in four Chinese provinces. The two partners agreed to a standstill on their offtake arrangement until each saw how the Indonesian situation played out.

When not chewing down their nails, the ABZ boys will surely be crossing those fingers: if Jakarta holds fast on bauxite bans, this will be a once in a corporate lifetime chance.