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Soft landing easily achievable with reforms, experts believe


Post Date: 19 Mar 2014    Viewed: 399

There will be no sudden economic crisis, former policy adviserpredicts

China has the capacity to ensure a soft economic landing, andongoing reform will bring new drivers to sustain growth, economistsand industry leaders attending the "two sessions" said.

Neither the local government debt burden nor the shadow bankingsystem will lead to a serious systemic problem in the short term,according to Yu Yongding, economist and a former monetary policyadviser for the nation's central bank, the People's Bank of China,

"China won't encounter a sudden economic crisis," said Yu. "Forinvestors who've gotten out of China assets, it's natural to expresspessimism ... 'We've been used to it.'"

China's banking sector remains solid, and the shadow banking sectoris also well under control, said Yang Kaisheng, former chairman of theIndustrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd, the country's largestlender.

At the end of 2012, the shadow banking sector was equivalent to about10 percent of GDP, while the figure in the United States was 150 percent, according to Yang.

"Compared with some developed countries, the scale of China's shadow banking sector isn'tlarge.

"More important, leverage in the sector is low, because some of the popular derivatives commonin the West are prohibited under China's regulatory framework," said Yang.

The economic deceleration is actually the government's deliberate choice, to allow time toupgrade the economy for higher-quality long-term growth, said Zhang Xiaoji, director-general offoreign economic relations at the Development Research Center of the State Council.

China has targeted GDP growth of 7.5 percent in 2014, unchanged from last year, according to agovernment work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang at the parliament's annual session.

Li emphasized that the target was determined by considering the economy's growth potentialand the need to strengthen market confidence, as well as to lay the ground for economicrestructuring.

Ensuring adequate employment growth and a stable labor market are also key factors.�


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