Reality Check:US Machine Tool Demand in Uptrend
Post Date: 27 Mar 2014 Viewed: 291
Machine tool demand is on the rise, buoyed by the sustained revival of the U.S. manufacturing sector, according to manufacturing machine makers.
Machine tool executives and industry experts told MNI that factories across the U.S. are replacing aging equipment, having delayed these purchases during the recession and its aftermath. Now secure in their own growth, manufacturers are letting loose some of the capital that was closely guarded for years and investing in fresh machines and enhanced productivity. But harsh winter weather has delayed some orders in January and February, manufacturers said.
A leading U.S. manufacturer of computer-numerically controlled (CNC) machining centers and lathes has budgeted for 5% to 10% expansion this year.
"We don't see gangbuster growth, but the market is holding up," said Scott Melamed, director of marketing for Haas Automation, headquartered in Oxnard, California. "Our distributors around the country are all very positive."
Melamed told MNI that Haas' orders in January and February were about equal to year-ago numbers, as expected. Had extreme winter weather not delayed orders from the Midwest and Northeast, sales might have risen by a few percentage points, he said. But Haas' pipeline is promising.
"With the amount of quoting that's going on, we're hopeful about what's going to happen this year," Melamed said.
The best demand for Haas equipment is coming from oil and energy sector clients, along with information technology- and medical technology-linked manufacturers.
Melamed said pent-up demand continues to roll out, as it has been for a few years, but customers remain keenly price-conscious. He said higher-end competitors have worked the last few years to bring out lower-priced models that now compete with Haas, whose CNC milling machines average in the $65,000 to $85,000 price range, he said.
"There's a lot less reluctance to buy," Melamed said. "I think the U.S. economy is doing better than many people think. Our dealers are saying so."
Haas itself is adding staff, and in the last few months has hired two marketing professionals, he said.
The latest industry tally has January U.S. machine tool orders down by 25.2% from December and up a modest 1.3% from January 2013, according to data compiled by the Association of Manufacturing Technology, which represents machine tool manufacturers and distributors.
Orders slowed in January following a December run-up, as customers took advantage of expiring tax benefits for capital expenditures, AMT President Doug Woods told MNI.
February and March saw positive trends in both shipments and backlogs, with weather only delaying winter commerce, not killing it, he said. He predicted a "negligible" overall impact on machine tool consumption, and catch-up in April and May.
Fresh from the trade group's annual meeting, in Phoenix, Woods said members expect a "very good" year ahead.
"I talked with the CEO of a billion-dollar AMT member company, who is pessimistic all the time. He actually had a positive forecast for 2014, which shocked me," Woods said. "That's the signal I was getting from most of our members."
Machine tool manufacturers' backlogs grew throughout 2013, he said, and he noted prolonged improvement in national figures on both capacity utilization and manufacturing growth.
Industry economists forecast 10% growth in 2014, Woods said.
AMT members are encouraged by signs of a comeback in consumer confidence, alongside the recovering housing market and the revving automobile market, Woods said. Business profitability is up, interest rates remain low and - mirroring trends seen in the auto and home-appliance industries - the average age of factory equipment is 21 years, he noted.
"There's a lot of need for replenishing."
Another driver of machine tool demand is foreign direct investment, Woods said, and pointed to global automotive, technology and other companies establishing plants in the U.S. He is also cheered by the still-modest but growing trend of re-shoring, as U.S. brands pull some of their manufacturing processes back home from overseas plants.
"They'd rather be closer to the consumer, with access to universities, to capital and venture money," he said.
U.S. sectors most actively ordering machine tools just now include automotive, aerospace, contract manufacturing and energy, Woods said.
An emerging technology, three-dimensional printing of solid objects from a digital image, is a fast-growing sector of machine tool manufacturing, according to David Burns, president and chief operating office of The ExOne Company. His company makes 3-D printers for manufacturing applications, like making metal parts, and also provides 3-D printing services for firms that have not invested in the expensive additive-manufacturing equipment.
"We are growing at a rate of about 40 to 50 percent a year in revenue, and as far out as we can see we expect to keep growing at that pace," said Burns, whose machines are priced roughly between $150,000 and $1.2 million.
"We're still observing the very nascent stage of a technology," he said.
"And capital budgets for durable cap-ex have been pretty robust here the last two or three years."
Burns, who is a director on the AMT's executive board, said additive manufacturing demand saw the beginning of a marked uptrend about two years ago. ExOne's customer base includes aerospace, energy, automotive and construction.
In business since 2005, ExOne's machines have 10 times the output today of the companies earliest models, but prices haven't increased much, Woods said.
About 30% of Burns' business is demand from the Americas, another 20% comes from Europe and almost 50% comes from Asian companies.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release February durable goods data on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EST.