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Nickel price surge more than flash in the pan


Post Date: 12 Apr 2014    Viewed: 286

Nickel's transition from laggard to market darling is continuing apace, with a perfect storm of factors driving positive sentiment for the metal.

Australia's three pure-play nickel stocks are surging this week on the back of a rising commodity price, elections in Indonesia and even a hint of takeover speculation.

The fun started in January, when one of the world's major nickel suppliers, Indonesia, banned exports of some unprocessed types of nickel, in a bid to lure miners to build processing facilities on Indonesian soil.

After years in the doldrums, the reduced exports sparked a rise in nickel prices that is still under way three months later.

With a 20 per cent rise under its belt since January, the benchmark nickel price (measured at the London Metal Exchange) is now at its highest price in 54 weeks.

LME Nickel for three month delivery was $16,718 per tonne this morning, which equates to about $US7.58 per pound in local parlance.

The surge has seen the ASX's biggest pure-play nickel producer, Western Areas, almost double in size from $1.97 per share in early December to $3.68 today.

Another local nickel miner, Panoramic Resources, picked the perfect time to announce a new brownfield nickel discovery, and its shares have duly more than doubled from 23¢ to 53.5¢ since January 10.

The company boasting Australia's best untapped nickel discovery, Sirius Resources, has also benefited from the improved outlook, having risen from $1.95 in early December to $2.52 today.

Some quick money has also flowed into Sirius and Western Areas amid speculation that one or both could get tied into the change of ownership that is expected soon at BHP Billiton's nickel assets in Western Australia.

As UBS explained, the next owner of the BHP assets would need to secure up to a decade's worth of feedstock for the smelter, making the relatively nearby ores owned by Western Areas and Sirius an attractive addition for any suitor.

That theory has delivered a 15 per cent boost to Sirius' share price since midday on Tuesday.

UBS thinks the nickel price spike is more than a flash in the pan, and this week upgraded its nickel price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 by 14 per cent and 10 per cent respectively.

Of course, the accuracy of forecasts depends largely on what Indonesia does with its export policies. Parliamentary elections yesterday will help determine the fate of presidential elections later this year.

The outcome of this week's poll is still sketchy, but in a research note analysts at Citi suggested that all candidates were likely to keep the export ban in place.

''It is thought that any of the four leading parties would likely prioritise domestic industry,'' the analysts wrote. 



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