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For Chinese Steel, Flatter Is Better


Post Date: 07 May 2014    Viewed: 455

After a harsh winter, China's steel industry has to brace for a tough year ahead. But there is warmth for those parts of the sector geared toward consumers.

China's top steelmakers recorded a combined loss of $368 million in the first quarter, the worst three-month period since 2000, according to the China Iron and Steel Association. Blame it on fewer new high-rises and roads. These consume 56% of the metal across China, says Sanford C. Bernstein's Ignace Proot.

The construction slowdown is really hitting so-called long steel products such as reinforcing bars and wire rods that are used in building. Their local prices were down 4.5% as of mid-April from a year earlier.

Yet not everything in the steel sector depends on China's heavy investments. "Flat" products such as rolled coils or galvanized steel are heavily used in cars or appliances that consumers buy. Their overall prices have held up better, falling 1.6% year-over-year as of mid-April.

The prices of these two sets of products may diverge more over time. Long products currently account for 64% of China's steel demand, according to Mr. Proot. As China catches up with its infrastructure needs, this ratio is likely to fall closer to the developed world's 43%. China already exports steel bars. If it floods the world market with more such products in the face of lower home demand, prices will worsen.

Granted, flat products look oversupplied right now, though that should correct as China slowly rebalances its economy toward consumption. Passenger-car sales are projected to show 10% average annual increases for the next three years, according to LMC Automotive. That is a boon for demand, considering China uses just 6% of its total steel for autos, and has room to climb to Europe's 16% or the U.S.'s 23%, says Mr. Proot.

One beneficiary of a "flatter" steel sector could be Hong Kong-listed Angang Steel0347.HK +0.84% —more than 80% of its sales come from rolled coils and plates. This may have helped it turn a net profit during the first quarter when many firms suffered losses.

Some global steelmakers also look better positioned than local Chinese ones. The majority of revenue at South Korean giant Posco 005490.SE -1.15% comes from flats. Last year it finished building a 450,000-ton plant in southern China for making plates for cars. ArcelorMittal, MT +0.56% the world's largest steelmaker by capacity, partly owns a 1.5 million-ton automotive steel venture in the country, too.

A shift to consumption won't rescue overall steel demand. It will take some time to reorient China's economy, and households need less steel than construction companies anyway. But it does open niche opportunities for steelmakers. 


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