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Analysts warn against iron ore rebound hope


Post Date: 23 May 2014    Viewed: 360

The iron ore price found mild support on Wednesday night after declining for two straight days at the start of the week, when it fell as low as $US97.50. The price of the steelmaking ingredient lifted 1 per cent to return to Monday’s close of $US98.50 a tonne.

ANZ analysts said concerns over potential supply disruptions from Australia, given the union dispute at BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metal Group’s port facilities, had helped seaborne prices.

Goldman Sachs’ Christian Lelong said that, although there was a strong rebound in prices when the iron ore price last slumped below $US100 a tonne in September 2012, he did not believe that would occur this time.


He said while the current downturn could trigger another destocking cycle of similar scale seen two years ago, which aided a strong rebound, the eventual rebound this time would be far less robust than previously.

The investment bank said it had growing conviction in its 2015 forecast of $US80 a tonne.

Macquarie’s team of analysts said it had been a tough five months for pure-play iron ore stocks in an environment that had seen spot iron ore prices fall nearly 30 per cent.

“All 10 stocks in our mid-cap coverage universe have suffered material share price falls verses the broader market and small resources index, which are essentially flat year-to-date,” the analysts said. RBC Capital Market’s Timothy Huff said the next round of focus on iron ore could be on product differentiation, not just pricing.

“We think iron ore product and market positioning could be a main driver of investor confidence for iron ore companies as we head into 2015,” he said.

While Mr Huff said he was not calling the bottom of the iron ore price at about $US98 a tonne, he would not be surprised to see higher realisations for cargoes with an iron ore content of 62 per cent in six weeks. 


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