Retail Forward forecasts flat sales growth for the fourth quarter of 2009. The only growth that was lower in the last four decades was a 4.5% decline recorded in 2008. Although an improvement is expected over last year, a full recovery for retail sales this holiday season is probably not on the cards.



The segments reviewed for the holiday shopping season represent all retailing sectors including home-improvement stores, catalogs, online sales and the key retail sectors.



Deloitte recently stated that it expects to see flat sales over the holiday season as well.



Frank Badillo, senior economist for Retail Forward, stated: "Softer August retail sales declines are signs of an emerging retail recovery that will be driven by growing confidence among households. This is positive news as we move into the critical holiday season, but the economic environment will remain difficult. Sales declines will persist for specific retail channels- particularly apparel and home goods - but will end for aggregate measures of retail sales."



The group of mass retailers including discount department stores, supercenters, warehouse clubs and small-format value stores is expected to increase sales by 2.5% this holiday season. This constitutes an increase over 2% last year.



Online sales across retail channels are forecast to rise by 4% this holiday season after a 5% drop last year.