Steel lift won't last unless Asia picks up China's slack
Post Date: 26 Nov 2014 Viewed: 581
China's surprise interest rate cut announcement may not be enough to stimulate the country's ailing residential property market and boost its economy, analysts say.
Friday's announcement – the first rate cut in over two years – sent iron ore stocks in Australia surging on Monday.
But ANZ commodity analyst Daniel Hynes said it was unlikely to have a lasting impact.
"The increasing short positions in the market and other economic data coming through still paint a fairly grim picture for steel and iron ore prices in the future," Mr Hynes said.
China's residential property sector accounts for a whopping 24 per cent of China's steel consumption.
However the property poor performance seems to have had only a modest effect on Chinese steel production, with crude production for October at 67.5 million tonnes, down 0.3 per cent on October 2013 according to the World Steel Association.
"In the short term, [China's] strategy of targeting other south-east Asian economies through export focused steel plants on the south-east coast should mean that the absolute level of crude production should hold up relatively well," Mr Hynes said.
According to Metal Bulletin, China exported 8.55 million tonnes of steel products in October, a record level for the second consecutive month.
"[We] expect elevated export levels combined with a lack of surging production growth will continue to make stock levels within China look thin, providing support for price levels through tighter fundamentals at home," Metals Bulletin analysts said.
The price of steel, or rebar, has come off 21.3 per cent in 2014 to 2456 yuan ($464.04) per tonne. One of the core components of steel, iron ore, has had an even more horrible run, sliding 46.3 per cent to $US70.42 per tonne this calendar year, according to MB data. The move from China's central bank saw iron ore inch up just 0.2 per cent overnight on Monday.
"When you look at it from a broad view, when you compare China to other developed markets like Europe and the US, the sustainable long-term level of steel production should be significantly lower than where they are now. That doesn't bode well longer term," Mr Hynes said.
China's "awakening" brought world steel production back to trend levels, so the question now is whether the rest of Asia can take up the baton, Credit Suisse analyst Paul McTaggart said.
"70 per cent of the world's steel production is blast furnace based and requires iron ore and given that new steel capacity will mostly be based in scrap short emerging economies, we expect that iron ore units will continue to support around 70 per cent of steel production growth, if not more," Mr McTaggart said.
"At 3 per cent trend growth that's 45mtpa of crude steel that needs Fe units, and growing annually. 45 million tonnes per annum of crude steel is around 70 million tonnes per annum mtpa of iron ore pa on a sustained basis."