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Iron ore on the road to redemption but still has a long way to go


Post Date: 09 Jan 2015    Viewed: 319

Iron ore prices have rallied a little over the past two weeks, providing a glimmer of light amid the overall commodities gloom.

However, analysts are still bearish on the prospects for Australia's biggest mineral export.

Iron ore was trading at about $US71.50 on Wednesday - up from five-year lows of $US66.84 on December 23 - but was still a long way from the $US133.76 high from this time last year.

Analysts are pointing to restocking of iron ore inventories on Chinese ports as one of the main reasons.

"Steel mills have begun to restock on the lower pricing, meaning stockpiles at Chinese ports have fallen steadily for the past six weeks," IG said. "Chinese inventories hit an 11-month low."

UBS analyst Daniel Morgan said iron stockpiles on Chinese ports had fallen to about 95 million tonnes, from about 110 million tonnes in December.

"Stockpiles are starting to come down, which is positive," Mr Morgan said. "It was starting to weigh on people's minds - there were elevated levels of inventory. There may be a modest restock happening at the steel mills."

But he said a "myriad of factors" were having an impact on the iron ore price.

"There's a few snippets of news going around that the Chinese government is approving an expansion of infrastructure projects in 2015. That's buoying sentiment," he said.

Media were reporting that China planned to speed up $US1.1 trillion of infrastructure projects this year, part of a broader $US2 trillion plan that will run through 2016, he said.

In addition, the cyclone season in Western Australia could disrupt production over the next couple of months and lend support to the price from the supply side, he said.

Nevertheless, it was important not to get too carried away. "I don't think that we're going to see a heroic lift to $US100 a tonne or anything," he said.

In particular, the oversupplied property sector in China had dampened a significant source of demand for the metal.

"The outlook for iron ore in 2015 is subdued," Mr Morgan said.

ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said the mini-rally had gone against the trend in other markets in the past week.

Increased Chinese steel production in December had boosted the price, he said. "A fall in inventories has helped as well."

However, he didn't expect that the rally would be sustained over the next month or two.

"We're a bit dubious as to the sustainability of this little rally. These types of rallies don't look sustainable until we get a real improvement in underlying demand conditions in China." 


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