Iron ore prices at new 5-1/2 year low as rout takes hold
Post Date: 31 Jan 2015 Viewed: 315
Spot iron ore prices hit a new 5-1/2 year low on Thursday as more signs emerged of slowing Chinese economic growth, although iron ore and steel futures in China edged higher on interest from bargain hunters.
A deepening iron ore glut and worries over a sharper economic slowdown in top buyer China will drive the average 2015 price for the steelmaking ingredient to a record low of $68 a tonne, a Reuters poll showed.
China plans to cut its growth target to around 7 percent this year, its lowest goal in 11 years.
"We see weakness going into the Chinese New Year and probably a bit of a lift afterwards. The Chinese steel mills and iron ore traders we just surveyed are looking to restock a bit," said Bart Jaworski, analyst at Davy Research.
He added, however, the firm's survey found a "resounding bearishness" for iron ore prices over the next 12 months.
Benchmark 62 percent grade iron ore for immediate delivery to China fell 0.6 percent to $62.30 a tonne, its lowest since May 2009, data compiled by the Steel Index showed.
Iron ore futures for May delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed up 1.3 percent at 476 yuan ($76) a tonne, while the most traded May rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.7 percent at 2,507 yuan a tonne. Both contracts had their biggest daily gains since Jan.6.
Analysts said the futures rebound was a short-term technical bounce as fundamentals would continue to be weak this year.
"Steel demand will improve only slightly after the Chinese New Year given the government has approved a lot of infrastructure projects recently. But it won't offset sluggish demand amid the property downturn," said Yu Yang, a Shanghai-based analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Futures.
Baosteel, China's biggest listed steelmaker, will cut hot-rolled coil prices for March bookings. And industry data showed output from China's large steel mills fell 5.1 percent over Jan. 11-20 as producers responded to weak demand.
The cuts have weighed heavily on iron ore prices, forcing many high-cost miners to suspend production or shut permanently.
"There's more evidence higher cost miners are exiting the market," Fortescue's head of sales and marketing, David Liu, told reporters on a conference call after the company delivered a strong quarterly report.
Liu said if prices stay low and there is no further Chinese stimulus, a total of 50 million-70 million tonnes of Chinese production is expected to exit this year. Outside China, about 80 million-100 million tonnes of high cost output was in the process of exiting the market, Liu said.