Ineos’s decision to take a stake in shale assets owned by UK onshore specialist Igas looks to be a lifeline for the London-based company, but it remains an open question how long such businesses will continue to burn cash in the hope of aping the shale industry in the United States.

Jim Ratcliffe, Ineos’s chairman, has spoken at length of his belief that shale can tackle high energy prices and revive the UK’s manufacturing sector, but patience elsewhere appears to be growing thin.

It is now nearly four years since Cuadrilla – the first company to invest substantial sums in UK unconventionals – drilled three exploration wells in Lancashire and claimed the UK had significantly more gas in place than previously thought, triggering hopes of a US-style shale bonanza. But headaches surrounding the permitting process mean Cuadrilla has not fracked a well since 2011, and is unlikely to do so again until later this year at the earliest.

This represents painfully slow progress for a company that is desperate to get drilling, and makes the UK government’s ’all-out‘ approach to shale seem somewhat over-hyped.

Of course, it takes more than central government support – local government, communities and the environmental permitting process must be negotiated before drilling can progress. However, one key question presents itself: can the industry survive any further setbacks?

Perhaps the most obvious potential hurdle looms just two months away: the UK general election. A change in administration at such a delicate stage in the industry’s development could conceivably cause irreparable damage.

While not against shale development per se, the Labour Party has pledged to overhaul the UK’s onshore regulatory regime if it gains power – a process that would undoubtedly delay drilling even more, placing operators under greater financial stress. Assuming the Conservative Party wins the election, government support for shale is unlikely to waver, but public opposition – if the protests at Balcombe in 2013 are anything to go by – seems set to grow and grow.

Even if Labour fails to oust the Conservatives this time around, few would bet against them doing so in five years’ time – so what happens then? Cuadrilla has earmarked 2018 for commercial production, but given the obstacles it has faced to date it would be fair to assume ramp-up will not come much before 2020 – so a change in government at that point could prove similarly ruinous.

However, it is not just uncertainty over policy that is casting a shadow over UK shale – explorers must also contend with the grim reality of the European gas market. Demand across the continent has fallen to levels not seen since the 1990s, sending prices in February – traditionally the coldest month of the year – to record lows. Therefore, even if companies succeed in getting gas out of the ground in significant quantities, will anyone be prepared to pay the price needed to make the process commercial?

Ratcliffe clearly knows what he is doing – he founded Ineos in 1998 and turned it into a company with sales of more than $50 billion. However, it takes a healthy dose of positive thinking to envisage a UK shale industry existing a decade from now – much less one that would revolutionise UK manufacturing.