The Chinese economy showed a markedly steep deceleration in the first two months of the year dues to a serious slump in the real estate market. While the slowdown is widely expected to continue well into 2015, forecasters anticipate that rare earth prices will remain strong in China — even as a soaring U.S. dollar weighs heavily on commodity prices.

After the end of Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, ACREI’s (the Association of China Rare Earth Industry) spot rare earth price index rose from 145.7 (February 25th) to 150.9 (March 13th) for an increase of +3.57% over the past two weeks. Even Gadolinium and Erbium prices have started moving north, due to the soaring price and increasing demand for Dysprosium, Terbium and PrNd (see REEHandbook.com for more information on REEs).

Baotou government released its latest market monitoring report on March 9th and described the rare earth markets as having “rallied” in February, They also said that while rare earth carbonate prices held fairly steady that Neodymium oxide has gained another +9.7% over the month in the local market.

“Rare earth element prices have dropped nearly 90% from a peak in 2011 and now at the bottom of the cycle, the first round of rising rare earth prices amid tight supply position may be seen. Rare earth price are expected to rise steadily this year.” ACREI said in its latest market analysis report.

China’s 2014 total mining output quotas of rare earth at 105,000 tons (of which 87,100 tons was of the rock-type light rare earths and 17,900 tons was of the ion-absorption-type medium and heavy rare earths), which meant that Chinese rare earth producers only were allowed to produce approximately La2O3 27,547 tons; CeO2 43,486 tons; Pr6O11 5,096 tons; Nd2O3 17,530 tons; Sm2O3 1,824 tons; Eu2O3 302 tons; Gd2O3 1,427 tons; Tb4O7 213 tons; Dy2O3 830 tons; Ho2O3 226 tons; Er2O3 493 tons; Tm2O3 128 tons; Yb2O3 349 tons; Lu2O3 141 tons and Y2O3 5,557 tons in the past year, according to estimation.

ACREI recently released a report that China’s rare earth permanent magnets output was 81,000 tons in 2013, and consumed nearly 30,000 tons of Praseodyium-Neodymium Oxides and about 930 tons of dysprosium oxide. It is estimated that China’s 2014 output of rare earth permanent magnets was about 85,000 tons, while last year’s Dysprosium, Terbium and PrNd consumption increased further.

“Currently domestic rare earth production quotas cannot meet the demand for rare earth permanent magnets,” ACREI added.

“The actual mining of ion-absorption-type medium and heavy rare earths concentrates reached more than 60,000 tons,” according to an internal Ganzhou local Taxation Bureau analysis report. This report has been submitted to the State Administration of Taxation and in this report, Ganzhou suggested a reform to the rare earth resource tax, which includes a 30% tax based on the rare earth sale prices in the southern areas (the ion-absorbed-type middle and heavy rare earths).

Additionally, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has pledged to accelerate the implementation of a resource tax reform plan for rare earths, tungsten and molybdenum, and to further punish illegal rare earth activities in a statement earlier this month.

Insiders speculate that the Chinese government intend on starting to stockpile rare earths prior to the resource tax reform plan before May. It is also my position that Beijing will carry out new measures which will create another “sharp jump” in rare earths prices in China this year.

“Unlike the commodities such as copper and iron ore, rare earths look like a port in the storm as the government is pushing to shift the economic model towards a low-carbon economy focused on green growth,” added the MIIT. Market investors remain optimistic due to an increase in the domestic demand for rare earths, which many speculate will increase prices of rare earths at a rapid pace.

In February alone, China exported 2,052 tons of rare earths for a year-on-year growth of 24.74%; compared with 1645 tons of the exports quantity at the same period of last year. The export value was $24.95 million, which is a 29.4% increase from a year earlier, according to Chinese General Administration of Customs.

The latest figures from customs also showed that China’s total exports of 3509 tons of rare earth in the first two months of the year fell 22.1% compared to 4503 tons of rare earths exports during the same period last year. The export value is down 24.3% year on year to $59.903 million.