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Private equity calls commodity price bottom but not for iron ore, coal


Post Date: 24 Mar 2015    Viewed: 333

Private equity investors are calling the bottom for commodity prices but have excluded Australia's two key exports, coal and iron ore, from their optimistic view.

In recent months speculation has running hot that private equity players are poised to buy up battered minings stocks, as they are sitting on $US60 billion in cash earmarked for the resources sector.

The indications that some might move shortly were on display during the opening day of the annual Mines & Money conference in Hong Kong.

"I think we are probably at the bottom of the cycle ... it's probably time now to be contrarian," said Alain Fontaine, a partner at Ocean Equity Capital.

Mr Fontaine said mines that were already in production would be the key targets.

"This will happen first in the safest jurisdictions like Australia," he said.

His fellow panelists Steven Wood from Heritas Capital agreed that better times lay ahead for some in the mining sector.

"I think we are at the bottom or at least building a solid base now," he said.

'EVERYONE IS WAITING TO SEE WHAT MICK DAVIS DOES'

Both panelists identified gold, copper and nickel as the commodities they would be targeting, as sentiment around iron ore and coal remained depressed.

"Steel prices in China are dropping faster than the iron ore price which tells you there is no demand for steel in China," said Kenneth Hoffman, the global head of metals and mining at Bloomberg Intelligence.

He said the first private equity deal in the mining sector was likely to very large and could involve former Xstrata boss Mick Davis.

"Everyone is waiting to see what Mick does," he said

In March last year, Mr Davis raised $US5.6 billion with a mandate to create a mid-sized mining company to be known as X2 Resources.

Mr Hoffman said once the first deal was done then many more were likely to follow as a base would have been set.

This could provide a potential exit for battered Australian mining stocks which have too much debt at a time of falling commodity prices.

"I think you are going to see more mining companies being privatised," said Jason Chang from EMR Capital. "I think you are also going to see more money allocated to private equity funds in the mining space." 


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