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Iron ore rally approaches 10pc


Post Date: 28 May 2015    Viewed: 380

The price of iron ore has extended its run of gains to four days, gaining another US50c in offshore trade despite continued concerns about a market oversupply and a rising US dollar.

At the end of the latest session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US62.60 a tonne, up 0.8 per cent from its prior close of $US62.10 a tonne.

The rebound continues the roller-coaster ride of the past few months as the commodity drifts between $US50 and $US65 a tonne.

The four-day streak comes directly on the back of an eight-day losing run and despite the shorter winning streak, the gains — amounting to 8.6 per cent — have now matched the losses during this period.

The climb has come amid rising hopes of fresh Chinese stimulus, with little other catalysts for the surge given consistent downbeat coverage from analysts and a rising US dollar, which typically dampens demand for commodities.

The latest negative reports have come from Citi and Goldman Sachs, with the latter arguing calls for iron ore giants to trim production are misguided.

“The seaborne market is becoming a zero-sum game, so the dominant producers would have to stomach a further 100 mtpa (million tonnes per annum) of voluntary production cuts over the next couple of years in order to support prices effectively. In our view, this sacrifice is far too high,” Goldman said in a report, according to Reuters.

“In our view, competition in the iron ore market can only intensify; we expect the war of attrition will continue while prices gradually decline toward our $40/tonne forecast by 2017.”

Citi, meanwhile, has slashed its long-term forecast to $US55 a tonne from $US81 a tonne.


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