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Iron-Ore Reprieve Offers Miners Slight Relief -- Overheard


Post Date: 19 Jun 2015    Viewed: 416

What goes down might come up, albeit temporarily.

Analysts at Citigroup have increased their price forecasts for iron ore for the second and third quarters of the year by about one-third. That comes less than a month after the bank lowered its long-term price for the steelmaking commodity; Citi still expects iron ore to slump to under $40 a metric ton by the end of the year from about $60 a ton currently.

It is almost universally accepted that iron ore prices will again come under pressure as low-cost supply ramps up in the second half, and as demand from China’s steel furnaces wanes. Indeed, diversified miners’ share prices have floundered, despite the iron ore’s unexpected strength.

At the least, this respite makes a nasty surprise less likely during midyear results, with a focus on whether miners can cover their spending with cash flow. For Rio Tinto, say, forecasts for this year’s free cash flow have ticked up in recent weeks for the first time since 2013.

It may be short-term relief but the sector will be glad to bank what it can get. 


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