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Iron ore retreat continues apace


Post Date: 30 Jun 2015    Viewed: 351

The price of iron ore has weakened, extending a miserable run for the commodity that has seen just one positive session in the past 12.

At the end of the latest session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US60.50 a tonne, down 0.3 per cent on its prior close of $US60.70 a tonne.

The weakness came despite an interest-rate cut from the People’s Bank of China over the weekend, with investors seeing recent moves having little impact.

The commodity has been flirting with a fall below $US60 a tonne for the past week, but has instead slowly inched toward the key mark as investors weigh weak steel demand against low ore stockpiles at Chinese ports.

Traders are also eyeing rising supplies as Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton plan to lift production over the next 12 months, while Gina Rinehart’s giant Roy Hill mine is slated to shortly begin shipping product.

Caroline Bain, an analyst at Capital Economics, says the recent reduction in stockpiles is a temporary phenomenon, with the future supply rises a threat to prices in the second half.

“There will be a sharp move down in the second half, when people realise that the apparent shortage that they’ve seen in the second quarter was temporary,” Ms Bain told Bloomberg.

“There will be a renewed bounce of investor sentiment turning against iron ore. It could certainly go down below $US40.”

The comments follow a call from ANZ analysts to short iron ore last week.

“Iron ore held at Chinese ports have fallen 20 per cent so far this year to a seven-month low,” a note read. “While stocks still appear to be declining, we think the trend will reverse soon, ushering in lower prices.”

ANZ forecasts prices to hit $US53 in the next three months. 


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