Iron ore rebound seen as temporary respite amid rout
Post Date: 10 Jul 2015 Viewed: 406
Iron ore snapped a 10-day slump that culminated in the biggest one-day drop in at least six years as a selloff in Chinese equities paused and most industrial metals prices climbed, easing selling pressure.
Ore with 62 per cent content delivered to Qingdao rose 9.9 per cent, the most since at least 2009, to $US48.99 a dry metric ton on Thursday. It plunged 10 per cent to $US44.59 a day earlier, the lowest in data going back to May 2009, according to data from Metal Bulletin Ltd. Compared with annual benchmarks that iron ore was traded through until the past several years, that would be the lowest since 2005, according to Clarkson Plc.
Iron ore had plummeted as China's equity-market rout prompted investors to shun risky assets, including commodities, amplifying concern that supplies from Rio Tinto Group and Vale are surging amid faltering demand. Share markets in China jumped on Thursday, along with copper and nickel. Citigroup said that Wednesday's selloff was triggered by the stock retreat, and wasn't reflective of a deterioration in economic growth or commodity demand, even as it forecast lower iron ore prices.
"It has to bounce," Atlas Iron Managing Director David Flanagan said in an interview in Melbourne on Thursday before the price data was released. "It's not so much a reflection of the physical trade any more, it's about confidence and fear and happiness about the future."
Atlas, which closed and then reopened its mines this year as iron ore seesawed between bear and bull markets, is prepared to halt its mines again, said Flanagan. As Atlas sells some of its output forward, the company's new point for suspension may be under $US40 a ton on a realised basis, he said.
Stocks in Shanghai rallied by the most since 2009, ending 5.8 per cent higher, as the government battled to restore confidence. Officials have unveiled market-boosting measures almost every night over the past two weeks to reverse the rout.
The Bloomberg Commodities Index of 22 raw materials rose 1.1 per cent, extending a rebound from a three-month low set Tuesday, while copper increased 1.2 per cent in London.
Producers' shares also gained on Thursday. Rio rose 1.7 per cent to 2527.50 pence by 4.06pm in London, rebounding from the lowest since 2009. BHP Billiton climbed 1.8 per cent and Anglo American advanced 1.8 per cent.
"The scale of iron ore's decline was driven more by the stock frenzy than fundamentals," Xu Huimin, an analyst at Huatai Great Wall Futures in Shanghai, said Thursday before the price data. "That doesn't change the outlook for iron ore, which is still poor. It has room to fall further," she said, predicting prices will average $US45 in the second half.
Iron ore may extend a drop into the $US30s this year as supplies increase and steel demand in China shrinks, according to Andy Xie, an independent economist. The slump in China's stock markets, which showed a speculative bubble was bursting, was accelerating declines, said Xie.
"China's steel production is actually declining, that's the reality," said Xie, a former Asia-Pacific chief economist at Morgan Stanley. "All the high-cost guys have to shut down for this market to stop falling."