Iron ore miners winning the cost war, but price keeps chasing them down
Post Date: 24 Jul 2015 Viewed: 396
The best line of the iron ore quarterlies season of the last two weeks belongs not to BHP Billiton or Rio Tinto or Fortescue Metals Group, but the chief executive of struggling third tier player, BC Iron, Morgan Ball.
His relief at managing to stay cashflow positive in the fourth quarter was palpable, but he's still very much alive to the challenges ahead.
"We washed our face, but it's a little bit grubby," Ball told The Australian Financial Review's Tess Ingram.
Ball's company, like most iron ore producers in the Pilbara, has made huge strides in cutting costs.
Fortescue Metals Group is another great example. It has reduced its breakeven (the price at which it is neither losing or making money) from $US60 a tonne last year to $US39 a tonne. Its cash costs have fallen from $US34 a tonne last year to just $US19 a tonne, with $US18 a tonne in sight.
Chief financial officer Stephen Pearce declared the cost-cutting will continue.
"At $US18, the world doesn't just stand still, you've got to continually challenge your suppliers and inputs, and the way you are doing business. A lot of that will come from increasing use of technology in mining, and data to get more real-time information."
So why was FMG's share price smashed on Thursday, down 6 per cent to $1.64 – a new five year low?
Morgan Ball grimly acknowledged the problem facing every miner that's not BHP or Rio – the cost cuts just are being offset by
"The price seems to be chasing us down," Ball said.
The iron ore spot price fell to around $US44 earlier this month, but has ticked back up to $US52 in recent weeks. The price fell 0.7 per cent on Thursday night to $US51.76.
But most experts are expecting prices to push lower. Goldman Sachs said overnight on Tuesday that the price is heading down towards $US44 a tonne by the second quarter of calendar 2016 as the supply glut enters a second year.
Tim Schroeders, resources fund manager at Pengana Capital summed up the reasoning well on Thursday following FMG's production report.
"If we assume everyone lowers their costs, in an over-supplied market, that just means the price is going to get driven down even further."
FMG says it wont be expanding beyond its 165 million tonnes annual production objective, and chief executive Nev Power lashed BHP and Rio for their expansion plans on Thursday.
Putting the blame game to one side, there is no doubt Schroeders is right that the market remains oversupplied. And while it is, that price won't stop haunting miners big and small.