Chinese aluminum producers aren’t curbing their output despite the metal’s slump to a six-year low, suggesting the price of one of the world’s most heavily-traded metals still has far to go before finding a floor.

Metals producers normally usher in supply cutbacks when prices fall as hard as they have done for aluminum this year. But with a host of new cost-efficient smelters now online in China, few there are blinking yet.

That is bad news for the broader market as surging Chinese aluminum exports in recent months have been one of the biggest drivers of the metal’s price plunge. China accounts for about half of the world’s aluminum production.

Three-month aluminum futures are hovering near a six-year low of $1601.50 per ton reached on Monday this week, down by nearly 13% since the beginning of the year.

“Chinese production is growing faster than in the rest of the world,” said Ivan Szpakowski, Hong Kong-based analyst with Citi. “Most producers in China are still making money, especially the ones with new capacity.”

More than half of China’s aluminum production capacity now has smelting costs below $1,800 per ton, Citi said, adding that falling costs are likely to be a consistent feature of the Chinese aluminum sector. Chinese smelters that produce around 1.5 million tons of aluminum a year have closed down this year, but that has been more than offset by the newer ones coming on stream. In all, Chinese aluminum production is up by 32% year to date to 15.2 million tons, Citi said.

Other industrial metals such as copper and zinc have suffered in recent weeks as negative economic data have muddied the demand outlook from China, the world’s top consumer of many commodities. But the price slump in aluminum is likely to last much longer, analysts say.

Rising international supplies of aluminum are in turn reducing the premiums that producers can charge for immediate delivery to consumers of the metal, which range from metal fabricators such as Novelis Inc. to canned-drink producers such as Coca-Cola Co. and automobile makers such as Ford Motor Co.

Higher supplies have also happened partly as a result of changes to London Metal Exchange’s rules, aimed at slashing agonizing waiting times at warehouses that store aluminum.

U.S. premiums on aluminum for immediate delivery have crashed to $180 per ton from $530 per ton in January, says Daniel Briesemann, commodity analyst with Commerzbank.

China’s ability to sustain high aluminum production was in doubt early last year after Indonesia imposed an export ban on ores including bauxite—the main raw material for aluminum. But Chinese producers have got around the supply problem by stepping up bauxite imports from Malaysia and other countries in the region.

The global aluminum market will likely be in a surplus of up to 3 million tons this year thanks to China’s high exports, said Goran Djukanovic, an independent aluminum analyst.

“China’s government should realize that huge exports are significantly influencing lower prices at the LME and it hurts primary producers not just outside China, but in China too,” he added.

The dollar’s strength has helped aluminum producers outside the U.S. to withstand China’s export onslaught, as the international price of the metal is pegged to the greenback while their costs are incurred in local currencies.

Still, all the players in the industry are feeling the heat.

Earlier in June, Russia-based Rusal’s Chief Executive Vladislav Soloviev said the company may reduce its output of the industrial metal by 200,000 tons in annualized terms starting this autumn.

Analysts say production cutbacks are more likely to come from U.S.-based producers. A flood of Chinese aluminum there has put the local industry under pressure, forcing them to look for niche segments such as high-grade aluminum for automobiles and away from other products such as building sheets used in the construction industry.�