The worst could be over for U.S. Steel , which has been hit hard by cheap Chinese imports and slumping demand from the oil industry.

Changing hands at a recent $16.91, shares of the Pittsburgh-based steel maker (ticker: X) could climb more than 60%, to $28 a share, by the end of 2016, as cheap imports wane, steel prices firm, and CEO Mario Longhi’s restructuring begins to pay off. U.S. Steel is highly leveraged to prices and volumes because of its heavy fixed costs.

Longhi’s restructuring includes last week’s announcement that U.S. Steel will be shuttering its Fairfield Works blast furnace in Alabama in mid-November and laying off 1,100 workers. Getting less notice is that, in place of the blast furnace, the company is building an electric-arc furnace that relies on less-expensive scrap metal rather than iron ore and coal to produce steel, and requires fewer workers to operate.

China’s yuan devaluation further spooked investors, stripping about 10% from the stock price. But the currency’s decline is not steep enough to spur a meaningful ramp-up of imports. The spread between U.S. and Chinese steel prices has narrowed considerably, making imported steel less attractive.

Stepped-up trade actions to combat the flood of cheap imports should also lift domestic steel volumes. New import tariffs scheduled to be imposed in November will likely “more than offset a 10% devaluation of the yuan,” reckons Morgan Stanley metals and mining analyst Evan Kurtz.

Moreover, many believe that China will shutter some of its capacity, since its production costs are far higher—an estimated $400 a net ton—than what its steel fetches in the market, about $285 a net ton. Meanwhile, in the U.S., demand from automotive, nonresidential construction, and appliance markets remains strong, and factory output is rising. At the same time, inventories have been reduced, and modest price increases seem to be sticking.

“U.S. Steel looks quite attractive at these levels,” says Thyra Zerhusen, founder and chief investment officer at Fairpointe Capital and longtime lead manager of the Aston/Fairpointe Mid-Cap fund (CHTTX), which counts the stock as a top-10 holding. She’s encouraged by the likelihood of antidumping tariffs, strong demand in most of the company’s markets, rising prices, and cost cutting.

U.S. Steel shares have moved up a bit off their 52-week low¼ of $15.68 hit in late July. Sentiment surrounding the industry has improved, following the release of ugly second-quarter results that many expect will mark a trough for domestic producers. Still, the stock, with a market value of $2.4 billion, is off more than 60% since hitting a 52-week high of $46.55 last September. The recent price is well below U.S. Steel’s book value of $23.80 a share.

Conditions have been tough, which the company pointed out after reporting a 79-cent loss in the second quarter. Imports in the quarter stayed high because of the strong U.S. dollar, and one of its key segments, tubular steel pipes for the oil and gas industry, suffered as low oil prices kept a lid on production. The company maintained its earlier guidance of $700 million to $900 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for 2015. Management, however, cautioned the figure could come in closer to the lower end.

“To show such a small loss in the second quarter in such a horrible environment is a testament to how they’ve been able to cut costs,” says Michael Gambardella, a JPMorgan analyst who, after two years of skepticism on the stock, upgraded it to Overweight from Neutral after the second-quarter results. “The second quarter marks the near-term bottom,” he says.

Gambardella forecasts that the steel maker will narrow its losses to 24 cents a share in the third quarter and post a profit of 37 cents in the fourth. He sees the shares hitting $28 in 2016 based on positive domestic fundamentals. He expects $1.2 billion in Ebitda next year, and derives his price target by applying the stock’s long-term average multiple of 5.5 times enterprise value to Ebitda.

Now in its 115th year, U.S. Steel has found new focus under Longhi, who joined in 2012 and served as chief operating officer before taking the top post a year later. The Brazilian native—now a U.S. citizen—headed Brazilian steel maker Gerdau ’s (GGB) Ameristeel unit for five years. One of Longhi’s first acts as CEO was to launch a program called the Carnegie Way—a nod to Andrew Carnegie, whose steel assets helped form the company—to streamline operations and improve processes. U.S. Steel expects to realize more than $590 million in cost savings—$250 million over earlier projections—from the program this year.

Says Fairpointe Capital’s Zerhusen: “I’m pretty impressed by the CEO. He’s no nonsense, bottom-line oriented, and doing whatever he can, whatever is in his control” to improve competitiveness. While the industry is engaged in labor talks with the United Steelworkers ahead of a Sept. 1 deadline for a new three-year contract, Zerhusen notes U.S. Steel hasn’t had a strike since 1986 and Longhi appears to have “decent relations” with the union.

Out of Longhi’s control are Chinese imports, but steps have been taken to limit their impact. The Trade Adjustment Assistance bill passed by Congress in June gives domestic manufacturers a wider berth in filing trade cases and increases enforcement of trade laws.