The aluminum industry chain includes raw materials "bauxite, alumina and electrolytic aluminum" and products "aluminum processing". The profit elasticity of the whole industry chain lies in raw materials. The production capacity of bauxite and electrolytic aluminum is greater than that of alumina, and the industry trends transform. The overcapacity of bauxite and electrolytic aluminum, is the problem of alumina.

The insufficient effective capacity of alumina makes it become "short board" of the supply chain. In addition, the global alumina capacity increase is mainly in China, but China itself is still difficult to meet the demand of alumina.

The overseas alumina supply doesn't have big competitiveness due to cost + freight compared with domestic alumina. Since this year, the overseas supply even decreased and the southeast Asia alumina enterprises turned to their domestic markets and the Middle East market.

Alumina is the best beneficiary in aluminum industry chain. According to calculations, the profitability of alumina has reached a high order position in nearly three years, because it is difficult to change the industrial chain in the short term. Alumina prices may continue to lift, and the limit price is expected to be more than 3500 Yuan/ton.