Rio Tinto exported iron ore faster in the December quarter
Post Date: 16 Jan 2017 Viewed: 647
Rio Tinto appears very likely to achieve its recently lowered iron ore export guidance for 2016, with port statistics suggesting the company lifted its game in the final three months of the year.
Rio will report its full-year production numbers on Tuesday January 17, one day after coal pure play Whitehaven Coal kicks off quarterly reporting season for resource stocks on Monday.
Rio was supposed to ship 330 million tonnes of iron ore from the Pilbara in 2016, but a slow start to 2016 prompted the miner to ease that guidance to between 325 million tonnes and 330 million tonnes in October.
But December quarter statistics from the Port of Dampier, one of the two Western Australian ports that Rio ships its iron ore through, suggest the company exported about 11 per cent more than it had during the September quarter.
Rio shipped 33.93 million tonnes million tonnes through Dampier in the September quarter, and lifted that to 37.43 million tonnes in the final three months of the year.
The improved result was achieved despite Rio briefly suspending ship loading at the port on December 20 because of higher than usual ocean swells which had been caused by Cyclone Yvette.
UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock said he was expecting Rio's shipments to be about 87.7 million tonnes, including volumes owned by joint venture partners like Hancock Prospecting and Sinosteel.
"Rio's strong finish to 2016 has seen them come in at the middle of revised guidance [of] 325 330 million tonnes shipped," he said in a note.
The strong rate of exports from Dampier during the December quarter fits with the statistics recently published from nearby Port Hedland, Australia's top iron ore export location.
Monthly iron ore shipments through Port Hedland set a new record in December at 43.9 million tonnes, suggesting that the port tenants – Fortescue Metals Group, BHP Billiton, Roy Hill, Atlas Iron, BC Iron and Mineral Resources – also lifted their output.
If the trend continues to Rio's other iron ore port, Cape Lambert, then Rio should easily achieve 325 million tonnes of exports from the Pilbara, and won't be too far off its original target.
"The December quarter is generally a strong quarter for bulk commodities in Australia as producers look to maximise shipments ahead of year end and the wet season," Mr Lawcock said.
The miner downgraded forecasts for "mined copper" twice in 2016 but has raised its export forecasts in bauxite. Some analysts believe the company will beat the top end of its guidance for full-year coking coal production.
If Rio does beat its coking coal production guidance, it will have picked a good year to do so, given prices for the bulk commodity were stronger in 2016 than they had been for five years.
Mr Lawcock expects Rio to narrowly beat guidance for alumina and aluminium production as well.
Woodside Petroleum will also report its quarterly production results on January 17, with investors watching for any asset impairments or commentary around the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT), which was the subject of fierce debate in November because revenues from the tax have been sliding since the year 2000.
Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison announced a review into the tax in November, and the man conducting the review, former Treasury official Michael Callaghan has promised to approach the review with an open mind.
Gold miner St Barbara is scheduled to report its quarterly production numbers on Wednesday, while BHP Billiton will follow on January 25 and Newcrest Mining will report on January 30.
Rio will report its full-year financial results on February 8.
Shares in the $100 billion miner have gained 68 per cent in the past year. The stock closed at $62.09 on Friday, just shy of a 12-month high of $62.87 hit the prior day.