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Australia's commodity export expected to lift 14% in 2011-12


Post Date: 02 Mar 2011    Viewed: 444

Australia's agricultural, mineral and energy exports are likely to increase 14 percent to more than 256 billion U.S. dollars in the 2011-12 financial year, according to quarterly commodities report released on Tuesday by Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) .


According to ABARES Deputy executive director Paul Morris, earnings from Australia's commodity exports would rise to a record 256 billion U.S. dollars in 2011-12, after a 29 percent rise to 225 billion U.S. dollars in 2010-11.


"Over the medium term, commodity export earnings are projected to be maintained around this value in real terms, reaching around 260 billion U.S. dollars in today's dollars by 2015-16," Morris said in a statement.


Morris said the value of mineral resources exports was expected to rise 16 percent to 219 billion U.S. dollars in 2011-12, especially on strong demand for commodities from China and other Asian markets.


Impact of excessive rainfall, flooding and tropical cyclone Yasi are estimated to have cost agricultural production around 2.34 billion U.S. dollars in 2011-12 financial year.


Despite the natural disasters, the report said exports of farm products were forecast to rise 4.4 percent to 33 billion U.S. dollars due to recent significant increases in agricultural prices on world markets.


Meanwhile, Coal, Australia's most valuable export, would be hampered for the first half of calendar 2011 following the floods in eastern Australia, particularly Queensland.


ABARES estimated two to 2.6 billion U.S. dollars in lost productivity between December 2010 and March 2011.


Export earnings of coal in Queensland could be lowered by 22.9 billion U.S. dollars due to lower volumes, but the rise in the commodity's price may partly offset the drop in revenues.


For the near term, the report said backdrop for Australia's commodity exports remain strong overall.


"First, forecast strong commodity demand, especially for mineral resources, is expected to provide support for world commodity prices and, hence, Australia's commodity export earnings and terms of trade," the report said.


"Second, Australia's interest rates will remain relatively high compared with major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, given Australia's advanced stage of economic recovery."


Despite a strong outlook for commodity exports, the report also said there were considerable risks with Australia's leading export market as China raises interest rates and cuts government spending to slow down economic growth, which may significantly weaken domestic demand, and undermining growth in commodity demand.

 


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