JAPAN'S devastating earthquake will threaten China's exports in the following months, but the negative influence will be digested in the longer run, analysts said today.

"With disasters of such a scale, consumer and producer demand in Japan will certainly slump," said Xu Weihong, an analyst at the Guodu Securities Co. "It will add more uncertainties to China's exports, whose growth already moderated surprisingly in February."

China's exports only edged up 2.4 percent from a year earlier to US$96.7 billion last month, down from January's pace of 37.7 percent and slowest in 15 months.

Seasonal changes, including disrupted trade activities during the Spring Festival holiday, were attributed to the sudden slowdown, along with rising labor costs and a stronger yuan.

"It is hard to pin down how big influence will it make on China's exports," Xu said. "What can be certain is that the influence won't be small as Japan is China's third-largest trading partner."

In the first two months, China's trade with Japan expanded 28.8 percent from a year earlier to US$48.8 billion, only after the European Union and the United States.

"The size of the influence is also dependent on Japan's crisis management and how long the country will keep their quake-affected factories closed," Xu added.

The risk of a nuclear meltdown was still not ruled out today while major car and chip makers in Japan had to suspend production in quake-hit areas.