On January 22, 2011, Chinese Academy of Science's Center for Forecasting Science (CEFS) announced that it will issue the forecasting reports on China's economy in 2011 at a press conference held in Beijing, which was co-organized by CEFS and China Economic Net. Beijing Foreign Studies University and Science Press also joined the event as major partners.

It is the sixth consecutive year for CEFS to publicize its annual reports on forecasting China's economy. Over the years, due to its accuracy and authority, the annual economic forecast report issued by CEFS has aroused wide concern and won high reputation from a variety of institutions including governmental decision-making organs, major domestic and foreign economic forecasting services and financial institutions, as well as leading media organizations both at home and abroad. Meanwhile, CEFS itself has been appraised as "a top Chinese think tank", "a major think tank of Chinese government" or "an official think tank" by many domestic and foreign institutions and media.

The main components of the annual forecasting about China's economy in 2011 by CEFS are shown as follows:

In 2011, China will still maintain a rapid economic growth rate, and the estimated GDP growth rate is about 9.8%, which is slightly lower than the figurer of the previous year. To the GDP growth of 2011, investment, consumption and net exports will contribute 5.2%, 4.0% and 0.6% respectively. It is predicted that the growth rate for primary industry will be 4.6%, 11.0% for the secondary industry, and 9.7% for the tertiary industry in 2011. In terms of quarterly growth, China's economic tends to grow relatively slow in the first half year and rapidly in the later; that is, GDP growth rate in the first and second quarters will be lower, while higher in the third and fourth quarters. It is expected the maximum difference of quarterly will be about 1%, which means China's economy will develop stably.

It is predicted that the contribution of consumption to economic growth will expand in 2011, but it will be still smaller than the normal level. The total investment in fixed assets of the whole society is expected to be about 34.2 trillion Yuan in 2011, increasing 23% over 2010, with rapid investment growth. Under normal circumstances, the contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth is expected to be 95% in 2011; domestic demand will become the major driving force of China's economic growth. Export and import growth in 2011 is predicted to be lower than the rate in 2010.

CEFS predicted CPI for the year 2011 will reach about 3.7%. CPI in the first quarter will be the highest, and slow down in the following quarters. Components will mostly affect the annual CPI are food prices and housing prices. Food prices will increase by 7.1% compared with the previous year with about 64%contribution to CPI; housing prices will increase 5.4% in the year with about 19% contribution to the CPI. China will not suffer serious inflation in 2011.

CEFS predicted China's foreign trade will maintain steady growth in 2011, but the growth rate will obviously slow down compared with 2010. Overall, imports will be better than exports, and trade surplus will basically retain the amount of 2010. It is predicted that China's total imports and exports will be about 3.6091 trillion U.S. dollars in 2011, with an increase of 21.4% compared with the year before; export volume will be about 1.8935 trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 20% compared with the year before; import volume will be about 1.7156 trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 23% compared with the year before. China's total import and export to the United States are expected to be about 464.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2011with an increase of 20.5% compared with the year before; export volume will be about 340 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 20% compared with the year before; import volume will be about 124.5 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 22% compared with the year before. China's total imports and exports to the EU are expected to be about 584.7 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 21.5% compared with the year before; export volume will be about 376.6 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 21.9% compared with the year before; import volume will be about 208.1 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 23.5% compared with the year before.

On the condition that there is no rapidly deterioration in the global economic fundamentals, wars and other major emergencies, it is expected that the bulk commodity futures prices will continue to rise in 2011, CRB commodity futures index which represents the bulk commodity futures will fluctuate between 530 to 650 points with an average of 584 points, rising about 15.8% or so compared with the year before.

WTI crude oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate between 75 to 115 U.S. dollars / barrel in 2011 with an average price of 90 U.S. dollars / barrel. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate between 1250 to 1650 U.S. dollars / ounce in 2011 with an average price of 1, 380 U.S. dollars / ounce. LME copper futures prices will fluctuate between 7000 to 11,000 U.S. / ton in March, 2011, maintaining a high order position operation throughout the year, with the average price of 8,666 U.S. dollars / ton. CBOT futures prices of wheat, corn, soybean and other major agricultural products will rise to a certain extent in 2011, with the average price rising to 684,530 and 1290 cents / bushel, with an increase of about 18% to 24% compared with the year before.

China's grain sown area is expected to increase slightly in 2011 compared with the year 2010. On the condition of no severe natural disaster and with moderate or inferior moderate climate, the grain output will increase over 2.5 billion kg more than the output in 2010, reaching about 549 billion kg. China may see its 8th consecutive year of the grain production increase since 2004; cotton acreage in 2011 is expected to increase more than in 2009 with an increase of about 3%; if there is good weather in the latter period, the output is expected to reach about 6.5 million tons; China's edible oil plant sowing area is expected to increase slightly in 2011. If there is good weather during growing period, the yield will increase more than that of the year 2010, and the annual production of oil plants is expected to reach 31.9 million tons.

CEFS predicted that carbon dioxide emissions in China in 2011caused by the consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas will be 5,636.3 million tons, 1,478.5 million tons and 343.1 million tons respectively, and the total carbon dioxide emissions because of energy consumption will be 7,457.9 million tons. From the perspective of different industries, the top five industries based on the ratio that carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of primary fossil energy accounts for the total carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of primary fossil energy are: electricity, heat production and supply industry, 37.18%; oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, 24.68%; metal smelting and rolling processing industry, 7.51%; the chemical industry, 7.37%; non-metallic mineral product industry, 6.45%.

It is predicted that it will be difficult for the country's real estate market prices to maintain high growth in 2011, and its growth will fall. The national average sales price of commodity houses will reach 5711.51 Yuan per square meter in 2011, with an increase of 12.77% compared with the year before. The national housing sales price index in the first quarter of 2011 is expected to be 106.9, dropping 1.3 % at the same time last year; the second quarters will be 106.1, dropping 0.8% at the same time last year; the third quarter will be 105.4, dropping 0.7% at the same time last year; the fourth quarter will be 105.3, dropping 0.1% at the same time last year. In addition, demand growth will be slow in the field of the real estate, and demand growth of residential real estate will fall markedly; the main demand growth will be shown on non-residential real estate, including office space and commercial business space. Driven by the policies that increase the protection housing construction, the supply of commodity housing supply will continue to grow, but growth of the new construction area and the completion area will fall significantly, and the market supply and demand gap will still exist. Investment in real estate industry will maintain a rapid growth, while acquisition area of the real estate business land will grow slowly, and the completed land development area will be reduced.

It is predicted that the six industries, including automotive, electronic appliance, non-ferrous metal, steel, coal and oil industry will turn into a boom in 2011. As a leading indicator of macroeconomic, auto industry boom will remain the slight rising tense in the first half of 2011 since the fourth quarter of 2010, but the annual rate of boom recovery is limited; auto industry sales growth will go through rapid growth to a steady increase in 2011, and it is predicted that the annual car sales in China will reach 20 million, with an increase of around 11% compared with last year. Electronic appliance industry will follow, entering into the boom period in the first quarter of 2011, and sales of home appliances going into countryside and trade-in sales will continue rapid growth; boom of non-ferrous metal industry will be reached at the end of the first quarter of 2011, and non-ferrous metal prices are still confronted with higher pressure; and steel, oil and coal industry will remain a downward trend during the first half of 2011, while will enter into a boom period in the second half as the upgrading of China's economic growth gradually.

The forecast results about China's economy in 2011 worked out by CEFS also include residents' income, stock market, the RMB exchange rate, etc. and the particulars can be found in "China's Economic Forecast and Prospect in 2011" published by the Science Press. These economic forecasting is expected to have important reference value to the relevant government decision-making departments and domestic and foreign enterprises for determining the economic situation and making investment decisions.

GDP 'to slow this year'

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to retreat to 9.8 percent this year, with inflation likely to be under control at 3.7 percent, a government think tank said on Saturday.

China economy to grow 9.8% in 2011

China's economy is expected to continue to power ahead with a growth of 9.8 percent this year, and inflation at 3.7 percent, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a government think tank, predicts in a report.

China's economic momentum to continue: CAS

China's economic growth is expected to maintain its relatively fast growth as the nation will be able to keep inflation manageable, a leading government think tank said Saturday.

Forecast & analysis on China's foreign trade in 2011

China's foreign trade is expected to maintain steady growth in 2011, but growth will fall compared with 2010. Overall, imports status will be better than exports, and trade surplus will be essentially flat with 2010. It is predicted that China's total imports and exports will be about 3.6091trillion U.S. dollars in 2011, with an increase of 21.4% compared with the year before; export volume will be about 1.8935 trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 20% compared with the year before; import volume will be about 1.7156 trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 23% compared with the year before.

Forecast on China's consumer prices in 2011

CPI in the year 2011 will reach about 3.7%. CPI in the first quarter will be the highest, and the following quarters will show a downward trend. Factors that have the greatest contribution to the annual CPI are food prices and housing prices. Food prices will increase by 7.1% compared with the year before with about 64% contribution to CPI; housing prices will increase 5.4% in the year compared with the year before , with about 19% contribution to the CPI. China will not suffer serious inflation in 2011.

Estimation on energy-related CO2 emissions in 2011

Estimation on emissions of carbon dioxide generated by primary energy consumption in China's industries in 2011 provides the important reference value on the development of emission reduction targets and policy measures for industries proposed by China's "12th Five Year Plan ". Forecast Scientific Research Center has estimated emissions of carbon dioxide generated by primary fossil energy consumption in China's industries in 2011 with input-occupancy-output analysis and econometric methods.

Forecast on China's GDP growth rate in 2011

2011 is the first year of China's "Twelfth Five Year Plan", and under the premise that the relevant central departments are able to properly handle the relationship between economic growth and control on inflation expectations, experts from Forecast Science Center of CAS has predicted that China's economy will maintain rapid growth rate in 2011, and GDP growth will be 9.8% or so. Growth rate in 2011 will be slightly lower than the rate in 2010 mainly because of the low base of economic growth impacted of the international financial crisis in 2010, while the base in 2011 is higher.

Forecast on China's grain, cotton & oil-bearing crops in 2011

In 2010, the overall situation of China's agricultural production was good: grain production achieved a more substantial increase, but the cotton and oil-bearing crop production showed varying degrees reduction caused by climate anomalies, various disasters and other adverse effects.

In 2011, our government will take more measures to intensify efforts to support and benefit agriculture, and has clearly proposed the spread of agricultural science and technology, especially the breadth and depth of high yield establishment, so that China's agricultural production will have a very favorable start in 2011.

Forecast on China's housing prices in 2011

After implementation of the "secondary adjustment" in 2011, the policy regulation and control in the end of the year has not slowed down; many types of market-oriented and non-market means of control are issued alternatively, which once again shows firm attitude of the government to curb continuously rising house prices, and it can be expected that the arrival of 2011 will be the role of regulation and the test year for the effectiveness.

Analysis & forecast of the global bulk commodities in 2011

Bulk commodity refers to large quantities of traded material goods with product attribution which can enter into circulation, but not into retail, used for industrial and agricultural production and consumption. Bulk commodity in the investment market refers to the homogeneous and tradable goods which can be widely used for basic industrial raw materials. Usually, bulk commodities include three major categories, namely, energy commodities (oil, coal, etc.), basic raw materials (iron ore, nonferrous metals, precious metals, etc.) and bulk agricultural products (wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.).

Analysis & forecast on China's industry development in 2011

Based on trends of industry leading composite index and the proliferation index, combined with macroeconomics and analysis of the important factors which have impacts on future industry development, the prosperity of China's six industries in 2011has been forecasted including automobiles, household appliances, oil, coal, steel and nonferrous metal industry.