Alumina:

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), China’s alumina output was 2.96 million mt during March, with an annualized capacity of 34.86 million mt/yr, up 1.15 million mt/yr compared with February levels. The growth in alumina output was due mainly to the commissioning of alumina capacity in Shandong province after the Chinese New Year holiday. SMM predicts alumina output will continue to grow during April, but alumina output during May is expected to decline on a monthly basis given the current alumina surplus and falling alumina prices.

Aluminum:

According to the CNIA, China’s aluminum output was 1.41 million mt during March, up 8.5% MoM, but the 16.66 million mt/yr in annualized capacity was 330 kt/yr lower than February. These results were not in line with operating rates at domestic aluminum producers, so SMM believes the difference was a result of different statistics standards. SMM believes the annualized capacity of aluminum output will continue to increase over the next three months.

Aluminum Semis:

China’s output of aluminum semis grew significantly in March, which was in line with SMM’s previous forecast. In addition, aluminum semis output of 1.93 million mt was close to the record high of 1.98 million mt. SMM predicts aluminum semis output will set a new high in April as domestic consumption has rebounded strongly since the Chinese New Year.