China exports slow, but surplus widens
Post Date: 11 Jun 2011 Viewed: 485
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s trade surplus for May expanded from April, though the pace of growth was slower than analysts’ expectations, as export growth cooled and imports accelerated.
The trade surplus for the month totaled $13.05 billion, compared to April’s $11.4 billion, the General Administration of Customs reported. The result was well below the average projection for an $18.6 billion surplus, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Exports for the month were up 19.4% from a year earlier, easing from a 29.9% rise in April, and less than a 20.4% rise suggested by the Dow Jones survey.
Imports climbed 28.4%, faster than April’s 21.8% and above the survey’s expectation for a 22% gain.
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Goldman Sachs analysts in Hong Kong viewed the underlying conditions as weak, saying the relative strength in May imports were skewed by base effects from last year’s numbers, and that conditions within China reflect slower domestic-demand growth.
Last year’s trade data showed a big turning point in April, when China swung back to a trade surplus after running a deficit in March.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said Friday’s data revealed little spark globally for made-in-China goods.
“The slowdown in exports growth is consistent with the moderation in external demand growth,” the investment bank’s analysts said in a note following the data release.
They said China’s trade surplus typically expands during periods when the economy slows due to domestic policy tightening measures.
Analysts at IHS Global Insight also saw the numbers as suggesting weakening global demand.
“Indeed, this tallies with the recent May PMI data, which is showing a deteriorating picture for both imports and new export orders,” they said.
China’s “machinery imports from Taiwan — a leading indicator — were down last month, suggesting that manufacturers are having concerns about future external demand,” the analysts said.
Focus now shifts to inflation and other economic figures for May, due to be released Tuesday.
Among the highlights will be the consumer price index, which is expected to show its highest reading in the current cycle since 2008.
Consumer prices for the month are expected to rise by 5.4% year-on-year, up 0.1% from April, according to a survey of economists by Caixin released earlier this week