This half’s exports are still at a historic high, while Japanese supply disruptions are fading, reconstruction is starting and demand in the US is reaccelerating

The nation’s exports fell 9.7 percent from a month earlier to US$27.88 billion last month because of weaker seasonal demand for Taiwanese electronics and the shutdown of several plants at the sixth naphtha cracker complex, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday.

However, exports still grew 10.8 percent last month from a year earlier, with exports surging 16.9 percent year-on-year to US$154.14 billion in the first six months, the strongest level ever, the ministry’s data showed.

“The continuing strong momentum of Asian economies, and the robust demand from US and European countries for high-tech products made by local companies, drove up Taiwan’s exports in the first half of the year,” Lin Lee-jen , director of the statistics department, said at a media briefing.

Robust demand for smartphones and tablets made by Taiwanese companies helped boost exports in information and communications technology products to US$3.91 billion in the first six months, up 66.3 percent year-on-year, the highest growth among 10 sectors, Lin said.

Outbound shipments to China and Hong Kong, the US, Japan, Europe and ASEAN all hit a record high in the first half of the year, Lin said, adding that exports to ASEAN accounted for 16.4 percent of overall exports during the period, the highest level in history.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, rising uncertainties about the global economy — including fiscal tightening measures in emerging markets and the eurozone’s debt crisis — may slow the growth of exports, Lin said.

“However, the ministry remains optimistic that full-year exports will reach the government’s goal of US$310 billion, because the global economy is still in a recovery phase,” she said.

Imports surged 20.3 percent from a year earlier to US$144.07 billion in the first six months, also the highest on record, with imports of capital goods, consumer goods and agricultural and industrial raw materials all reaching a historic high, the ministry said.

Because imports grew faster than exports, the nation’s trade surplus fell 17.1 percent year-on-year to US$10.08 billion in the second half of the year, data showed.

“However, this may not hurt the nation’s competitiveness because the growth of imports mainly came from capital goods, a potentially good sign for an export-oriented country like Taiwan,” Lin said.

HSBC Greater China economist Donna Kwok  also expects the growth in exports to improve in the third quarter on stronger demand.

“Last month’s exports was a disappointing result, but as supply disruptions fade, Japan reconstruction efforts kick in, China holds up and US demand reaccelerates, Taiwan’s electronics-driven trade flows will stabilize during the third quarter,” Kwok said in a note yesterday.